SLGT risk of Severe Weather today/3-18...Extreme heat continues across much of the USA...Snowy in the Southwest

Minimal chances of Severe Weather today and tomorrow

Low chances for Severe Weather exist today through the end of the week as several weak impulses move across the United States and out to sea. The first threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will come this afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Current temperatures across the threat area reside in the mid-50s,  but are expected to soar into the low-70s by the afternoon. Modest dew points in the 50s will likely rise to AOA 60 °F, paving the way for convective activity. The two main limiting factors for today, however, are a lack of low-level convergence and forcing. Due to this reason, only marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts will be expected. This activity will rapidly diminish after sunset.

As a weak shortwave moves into the Central Plains tomorrow, it will be met with an increasingly favorable region for severe thunderstorms.  Peak heating should add additional energy for storms to fire off of, and steep mid-level/low-level lapse rates should encourage a hail/damaging wind threat. However, due to relatively weak wind shear, the threat of tornadoes is low. While it is not entirely clear where the main focus of convective activity will evolve, current thinking is that storms will fire across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle and Kansas in the evening, spreading across Iowa, Nebraska, and into the Great Lakes region as a low-level jet helps promote nocturnal activity, with a continued threat of hail and damaging winds.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook